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AMLO expanded Mexico's military. It built airports instead of reining in murders

Andrea Navarro, Bloomberg News on

Published in News & Features

In his six years as Mexico’s president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador gave his country’s military two important jobs: build infrastructure works to supercharge the economy and rein in violent crime.

By the end of his presidency, he will have accomplished only one — and left the other worse than ever.

AMLO, as the president is known, has used Mexico’s armed forces to build airports, construct a nearly 1,000-mile long railroad through the Mayan jungle, and create a state-owned airline. Those initiatives are likely to burnish his economic legacy as he prepares to leave office following this June’s presidential election.

Yet Lopez Obrador will leave another legacy as well. His administration has presided over the bloodiest term in the nation’s recent history, with more than 170,000 homicides since he took office in 2018 through February. That is a 26% increase from the 135,345 murders during the term of his predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto. And it has happened despite the combined budgets of the armed forces — the Ministries of Defense, Navy and the National Guard — being boosted by 150%.

“This government had the largest legal tools, institutional backup and budget than any other administration, and all the numbers are the worst,” said independent Senator Emilio Alvarez Icaza. “We’re seeing the worst numbers in homicides, in disappeared, in femicide. So the question is, what did they do?”

Nearly all of the extra funds AMLO’s administration provided to the military were directed to refashioning the armed forces into a construction behemoth, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News and Presupuesta Policy Consulting SA. This is the most in-depth assessment of the military’s resources and spending priorities to date. Meanwhile, as heists, kidnappings and extortions proliferated, the budget to train and deploy soldiers remained practically unchanged in real terms.

 

A separate public security ministry — which finances certain civilian-run public security efforts including the federal prison system — spent nearly 55% less during Lopez Obrador’s administration than Peña Nieto’s, and roughly 12% less than during Calderon’s term. The ministry receives funding for the National Guard, which Bloomberg did not include in this calculation since it is operated by the military.

While the president is flanked by top brass from Mexico’s Defense Ministry and Navy at various ribbon cuttings, cartels have been left to effectively run pockets of Mexican society. They charge locals for everything from Wi-Fi connections to water usage and even the right to have a party. Since the start of this year’s presidential election season on March 1, nearly 400 people connected to politics have been threatened or kidnapped, according to Mexico City-based consultancy Integralia. At least 24 have been murdered.

All of that has made public safety a top issue for voters. One recent poll said 46% feel security has gotten worse during AMLO’s term, and 74% think the government is very corrupt. It’s also ratcheted up tensions with the US, where migration across its southern border with Mexico and the influx of fentanyl-laced drugs are top issues in the presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

That leaves Mexico’s next president — be it AMLO’s protégé and overwhelming favorite Claudia Sheinbaum or opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez — with limited options for reining in the military’s spending and reach, at least in the short term. In 2022, AMLO changed the constitution to allow the military to handle public security until at least 2028.

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